Somalia:Daunting challenges for Somali new President

Mogadishu 23 Fabaury 2009 Waagacusub Media

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The election of a new young Somali president in Djibouti is mostly welcomed in Somali communities around the world in precautious manner, the challenges ahead and the less experience of both the president and prime minster is indeed trepidation for Somali leadership, the challenges facing the new government are numerous, and several of them can lead the government into collapse. The former Islamic Courts Union, Tribe enmity, Puntland, Somaliland and the international community are the stakeholders of Somalia problems. In this paper I will pen down these major obstacles which faces this new government.
Islamic courts union was once seen the promising hope by take the necessary step by overpowering the former warlords, they controlled almost the south of Somalia. Sharif Ahmed was the leader of that movement. Given the widely support of Somalis, this Islamic courts union did not achieve the expectation we had, they didn’t setup civil leadership, there was less agreement in any issue that arises in between them, there was no absolute leadership, there was internal rivalry between the group within this group (Islamic Courts Union).Sharif has failed to contain the Islamic Courts Union in a confrontation between them and Ethiopian government.
In reality, it was his responsibility that the Ethiopian troops invaded Somalia. During his leadership Sharif failed to setup civil leadership, contain violence, and take lasting resolution with the interim government. Unwisely he provoked a war between his Islamic Courts Union and the neighboring countries ignored the role of the interim government which is recognized internationally, and overlooked the international community role in bringing the country back into life.
Nearly two years later Sharif defected from the Islamic courts union and bilaterally reached an agreement with a prime minster (Nur Cadde) who contended his president (Abdullahi Yusuf) within the interim government. Both of these guys come from the some sub-clan. However the ironic is; if he can convince and agree with his former counterparts of Islamic courts union and renew his credibility, he can be trusted by other leaders of Islamic courts union, he matured enough to govern without a known experience of success in his leadership, and he can take tough choices and make hard decisions, then, in that case he may succeed. Nonetheless what is unknown so far; is if the leaders of Islamic courts union will ever trust Mr. Sharif given that they govern most of the southern regions of Somalia. Recently they announced that they will never accept anything less than full implementation of sharia law.
The tribal rivalry in Somalia is overlooked in the past and it looks it may happen this time. Much of the ethnic groups don’t trust each other because of the skirmishing and civil strife they committed into each other, each tribe wants to ensure his position in the government ministers and must deserve their expectations. That is why 4.5 formula was created, 4 privileged tribes and 1/2 which is allocated for the least fortuned tribes or degraded group of tribes in other word. Sharif cannot either ignore the tribal structure nor can he approve prejudice based system given his religion status.
Puntland is an added problem, its self governing region within Somalia. They created their civil order, maintained law and order, organized educational system, created colleges and universities, established some kind of stability even though there is clan opposition and tribal prejudices within them. Sharif has awarded this region the prime minster not because of known experience he has or touchable success he had on a known program, but merely, he is from that particular region. Puntland tried and will make every attempt to win the top leadership. They made their priority based on political will and power greed even if it is on the expenses of the ordinary people of their region and the entire country. However the other tribes in the south and in the north of the country will not and never trust a government controlled by puntland region. So, sharif will be caught between uneasy choices.
Somaliland is self declared state which is not recognized internationally by the UN. They relatively created stable internal government, created constitution, established civic order, and set up free and fair election observed by the international community. Somaliland will need charismatic and exceptional leader who they can trust, who can convince them to stay in the union. Can sharif who divided his own Islamic court union and dispersed them, who is lacking integrity of trust be the chief diplomatic and bring Somaliland back in to negotiating table?
The international community is lacking the will to bring this country back into life; it seems there is no joint will or interest between those countries interested in Somalia. They demand a government which will go in hand with each of their demands, they can’t accept a government which governs on the principle of sharia nor do they accept a government that is patriotic and talks about the self governing of the Ogaden and north eastern people of Kenya.
All these problems are going together at once, no one by one solution, and no simple approach. Its complex multi-logical problems, can Sharif who is not only moderate but prefer to take soft interpretation of sharia win this time without an experience of even basic principles of management, or will Mr. sharmake(the prime minster) who is unfamiliar of what he can do given the less experience he has will win? Time will tell. I envisage, not hoping that we are going to be back to square one, the situation we are in will not improve but it will double triple or quadruple or even worse.
By Abdullahi kulane

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